The Electoral Connection

Mayhew's Electoral Connection:

According to David R. Mayhew in his book, "Congress: The Electoral Connection", the one big focus of congressional representatives during their time in office is reelection to their seat. Mayhew states that the actions taken by representatives during their time in office serve the purpose of supporting that goal of reelection. Representative Kelly Armstrong is an interesting case when it comes to the electoral connection because he has jumped around quite a bit in elected positions. As stated in previous blogs, he first served as a Senator from 2013 to 2018 before successfully running for the House of Representatives position from 2018 to 2024. He is now leaving the House of Representatives to run for governor of North Dakota in 2024. Armstrong's tendency to jump around from position to position may indicate that he does not subscribe to this "single-minded seeker" identity. However, let's take a look at his recent advertising, credit claiming, and position taking activities in North Dakota to see how he may be using these strategies to help his election to a new position within North Dakota.

Advertising:

In Mayhew's view, advertising activities include anything that will get a candidate's name out to their constituency - hopefully in a positive way.

Representative Armstrong has recently been traveling around the state of North Dakota for various reasons and meeting with people at places ranging from a bakeries and high schools to hospital care centers.

Representative Armstrong is also speaking at local events in North Dakota such as the Republican sponsored event, Politics and a Plate, as he runs for governor.

Sources: https://twitter.com/RepArmstrongND and https://www.facebook.com/RepArmstrongND

Credit Claiming:

Credit claiming - according to David Mayhew - occurs when a representative takes advantage of their accomplishments within the government and uses them as a tool to get their constituency to view them more positively.

Representative Kelly Armstrong uses social media to claim credit for his support of bills like the farm bill. He is appealing to North Dakota voters by claiming that his work will support farming and ranching - which is one of their biggest industries.

Source of above tweets: https://twitter.com/RepArmstrongND

Representative Armstrong also uses press releases to claim credit on issues that are important both nationally and to his state of North Dakota. One of these recent press releases includes credit claiming energy production. In this press release, Armstrong credits himself with a vote for a bill that would lift restrictions on the export and import of natural gas, saying that he is voting in the best interest of North Dakotans when it comes to the issue of natural gas and energy production. Another recent press release from Representative Armstrong regards immigration policy, which is a hot topic in American politics right now. In this press release, Armstrong takes credit for an attempt to urge President Biden to reverse recent immigration policies.

Position Taking:

In Mayhew's view, position taking occurs when a representative announces their opinion or view on any hot-button issue in the country that is important to them. This action gives them the ability to easily show their constituencies how they feel about important issues.

Kelly Armstrong consistently uses tools such as social media and floor speeches to share his position on issues such as Biden's handling of documents, energy production, and spending bills.

Source of above tweets: https://twitter.com/RepArmstrongND

Evaluating Armstrong's Actions

Although Armstrong is not looking to be reelected to his position within the House of Representatives, he is still using the actions of advertising, credit claiming, and position taking as he runs for governor of North Dakota. He seems to be focusing a lot of these actions toward the state of North Dakota rather than the national agenda which makes sense because serving as governor would require him to be making decisions about what is best for North Dakota.

From House to Head of State

2022 Congressional Election

In the 2022 general election, Kelly Armstrong ran for and won North Dakota's solo House of Representatives spot. He ran against independent candidate Cara Mund and won by a margin of 24.63%. Armstrong did not have a Democratic challenger because the Democratic nominee, Mark Haugen, dropped out of the race due to pressure from the Democratic party to give Cara Mund - a pro-choice independent candidate - a chance in the race. North Dakota Democrats did not necessarily support Mund in the race, but they knew that a pro-choice Democrat would have very little success in a state like North Dakota.

Reelection Status

Representative Armstrong is not seeking reelection to the House of Representatives in 2024 because he is running for governor of North Dakota. Armstrong is currently up against Republican Lieutenant Governor Tammy Miller, Independent candidate Michael Coachman, and Democratic candidate Travis Hipsher. When announcing his run for governor, Armstrong said that he wanted to spend more time focusing on his home state and creating good policy for North Dakota.

Although it is too early in the race to make primary or general election predictions on North Dakota's gubernatorial election, there are events that have occurred that may affect Armstrong's popularity in the race. For example, current North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum has endorsed Lieutenant Governor Tammy Miller's run. Armstrong has said that this endorsement does not surprise him because of Miller's status as Burgum's Lieutenant Governor.

Current Predictions

In the 2016 election and the 2020 election, Representative Armstrong supported former President Trump. His pro-Trump feelings in the 2020 election align with the voting tendencies of his North Dakota constituency who voted for Trump by a margin of 33.6%.

There is little data on Armstrong's gubernatorial campaign's financial status in particular. However, from 2023-2024 while Armstrong has been serving in the House, the top industry that has donated to his campaign is the oil and gas industry with $87,700. The top contributor is Hess Corp at $11,000. As of 12/31/2023, Armstrong's campaign committee had raised $854,572 and spent $749,941. His campaign committee has raised less than the average raised by the campaign committees of other House members.

Having entered the gubernatorial race so recently, Representative Armstrong has not yet made many statements on his intentions or major issues. However, he has stated, "I miss the people who are more interested in solving problems than finding some social media fame." On his congressional website, Armstrong lists the major issues that have been important to him during his time in the House. These important issues include agriculture, Congress, economy, education, energy, healthcare, and veterans. It can be assumed that these issues will continue to be important to Representative Armstrong as he continues with his gubernatorial run. Armstrong has used his time in Congress to fight for policies that will benefit North Dakota and has always been very focused on what is best for his state. Based on his latest votes and sponsored legislation, the announcement of a gubernatorial run has not affected this commitment to policy that benefits North Dakota.

Media Sources

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oeaS2_C5As

House win photo: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-north-dakota-us-house-district-1.html

Gubernatorial candidates: https://www.kfyrtv.com/2024/02/23/armstrong-reacts-burgums-endorsement-tammy-miller/